Ramification of regime change in USA for India

Source – This post on Ramification of regime change in USA for India has been created based on the article “C Raja Mohan writes: The challenges of a Trump presidency for India” published in “The Indian Express” on 13 March 2024.

UPSC Syllabus – GS Paper- 2 -International relations- Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests.

Context– There are chances of Donald Trump winning elections against President Joe Biden. Therefore, there is a greater degree of apprehension among US allies in Europe and Asia about his domestic and international policies.

What are the implications of regime change in the USA for its allies?

1) Damage to long-standing US alliance– Unlike previous term where Trump was restrained by “adults in the room” and the American “deep state”, in this term he will be less restrained. His impulsive character and transnational approach can do irreparable damage to long-standing US alliances.

2) Endangering security interest– The former President has believed that US allies can’t expect the American taxpayer to spend money for protecting their strategic and security interest. Trump even warned Europeans that he would let Russia invade allies who do not pay their share of the defence burden in NATO. This may endanger the sovereignty and integrity of smaller NATO nations.

3) Imposing high tariffs on allies– There will be an end to generous non-reciprocal access to the US market for its allies. As, Trump does not want the US market to trade for geopolitical gains. This can damage the economy of many smaller nations who are dependent on duty free export to the USA.

Read more- Recent Development in India-US Relations – Implications and Significance

What are the implications of regime change in the USA for India?

Negative implications

1) Shift in balance of power– Trump’s “America First” policies may lead to withdrawal of troops deployment from Eurasia. This would allow Russia and China to build a new regional order in this area which may alter the balance of power in this region. It is possible that without American presence, Asia could easily slip into the Chinese orbit. These outcomes are clearly unfavorable to India.

2) Economic implication– India was referred as “tariff king” by previous Trump administration. His administration has also criticized India’s protectionist policies. India-USA economic ties have deepened in last few years, and it will be a challenge to maintain this momentum under new regime.

3) Confluence of security interest – The US under Trump administration would be looking for capable partners who could contribute to regional security in Eurasia.This demand can be met by India. This will also help India meet its fits s own great power ambitions.

Question for practice

What are the geo-strategic and geo-economic implications of regime change in USA for its allies and India?