Validity of India’s nuclear doctrine in the changing landscape of nuclear threats

Source: The post validity of India’s nuclear doctrine in the changing landscape of nuclear threats has been created, based on the article “25 years after it was drafted, why India’s nuclear doctrine still remains relevant” published in “Indian Express” on 20th August 2024

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper3-security

Context: The article discusses India’s nuclear doctrine, established 25 years ago, which emphasizes minimal deterrence and no-first-use of nuclear weapons. Despite evolving nuclear threats from Pakistan and China, the article argues that India’s doctrine remains valid and stable in today’s nuclear landscape.

For detailed information on India’s nuclear doctrine after 25 years read this article here

How has the global nuclear threat changed?

1. Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence: Pakistan now frequently highlights its “full spectrum deterrence” strategy, which includes the possibility of first-use nuclear strikes.
2. China’s Nuclear Expansion: China is undergoing a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal, increasing its capabilities.
3. Technological Advances: Adversaries are improving technologies like highly accurate conventional delivery systems, cyber-attacks on nuclear command structures, AI to counter retaliatory capabilities, and advanced intelligence surveillance.
4. Increased Collaboration Threat: There is concern about potential collaboration between Pakistan and China against India, intensifying the nuclear threat.

What is the validity of India’s nuclear doctrine in the changing landscape of nuclear threats?

1. Stable Deterrence: India’s nuclear doctrine, established 25 years ago, focuses on credible minimum deterrence and a no-first-use policy. Despite changes in the global nuclear landscape, these principles continue to provide stability.
2. Adaptability to Threats: While Pakistan’s first-use policy and China’s nuclear expansion are significant, India’s doctrine allows for a flexible and responsive nuclear force. This adaptability ensures continued deterrence without an arms race.
3. Technological Considerations: Advances like cyber threats and AI necessitate improved survivability of India’s nuclear forces. However, these changes do not require altering the doctrine itself.
4. Global Contrast: India’s restrained approach stands out against the aggressive nuclear policies of others, reinforcing its doctrine’s relevance as a beacon of nuclear stability in today’s world.

What should be India’s actions in the changing landscape of nuclear threats?

1. Enhance Survivability: Focus on strengthening the survivability of nuclear forces against advanced threats like cyber-attacks, AI, and improved ISR by adversaries.
2. Measured Arsenal Growth: Continue the steady, measured growth of India’s nuclear arsenal, aligning with the doctrine’s call for an “effective, enduring, diverse, flexible and responsive” force.
3. Maintain No-First-Use Policy: Retain the no-first-use policy, as it avoids the costly and complex demands of a first-use strategy.
4. Avoid Tactical nuclear weapons: Refrain from deploying tactical nuclear weapons, as their use could lead to unpredictable and destabilizing consequences.

Question for practice:

Discuss how India’s nuclear doctrine remains relevant and stable despite the evolving global nuclear threats.