In a turbulent world, India needs to plan for the worst

Source: The post “In a turbulent world, India needs to plan for the worst” has been created, based on “In a turbulent world, India needs to plan for the worst” published in “Indian Express” on 22nd April 2026.

UPSC Syllabus: GS Paper-3-International Relations

Context: Scenario planning is a strategic forecasting technique used by states to anticipate geopolitical, military, and economic contingencies before crises emerge. In a turbulent global order marked by conflicts such as the recent US-Israeli attack on Iran and risks like closure of the Strait of Hormuz, scenario-building becomes critical for a highly energy-dependent country like India.

Importance of Scenario Planning for India

1. Scenario planning helps governments anticipate disruptions such as energy shocks arising from closure of maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
2. It enables preparation for geopolitical transitions such as the rise of China and weakening of existing global economic structures.
3. It supports macroeconomic stability by preparing responses to capital outflows, currency depreciation, inflation, and slowing GDP growth.
4. It strengthens national security preparedness by aligning military planning with long-term strategic threats.

Global Best Practices in Scenario Planning

1. During the Cold War, the United States used “grand strategy” frameworks to prevent the spread of communism through structured forecasting mechanisms.
2. Andrew Marshall institutionalised net assessment techniques that predicted Soviet economic decline and China’s future rise.
3. The US later institutionalised scenario writing through the National Intelligence Council.
4. Countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom regularly produce structured strategic scenario studies.
5. Singapore is widely regarded as a leading practitioner of scenario-based policy planning.
6. China integrates scenario planning into its five-year plans and military strategy formulation.

India’s Institutional Preparedness: Present Status

1. India established the Directorate of Net Assessment under the Integrated Defence Staff following engagement with US strategic experts.
2. However, civilian bureaucratic institutions and foreign service structures have not fully institutionalised scenario-based planning approaches.
3. Currently, India has two major institutional options for scenario writing:

• NITI Aayog can undertake geopolitical and geoeconomic scenario planning.
• National Security Council can prepare military and security-related contingency scenarios.

1. Despite these mechanisms, India remains an “outlier” compared to other major powers in systematic long-term forecasting.

Emerging Strategic Scenarios India Must Prepare For

1. Scenario 1: China’s Global Strategic Expansion

1. China may attempt to dominate global governance institutions and challenge the dollar’s monetary dominance.
2. It may expand aircraft carrier capabilities and restructure military command systems into Eurasian tri-service commands.
3. Such developments could alter regional power balances and directly affect India’s security environment.

2. Scenario 2: Economic Instability within India

1. Continued foreign capital outflows could weaken the rupee.
2. A weaker rupee would increase the import bill and fuel inflationary pressures.
3. Rising inflation could slow GDP growth and affect economic stability.

Way Forward

1. India should institutionalise structured scenario-planning frameworks across civilian and defence institutions.
2. Scenario planning should integrate geopolitical, economic, technological, and military forecasting.
3. Coordination between strategic bodies like NITI Aayog and the National Security Council should be strengthened.
4. Long-term forecasting should be embedded into national decision-making processes similar to advanced strategic states.

Conclusion: Scenario planning is not merely a forecasting exercise but a strategic necessity in an uncertain global environment. Strengthening institutional scenario-writing capacity will enhance India’s resilience against geopolitical shocks and economic disruptions while supporting its rise as a major power.

Question: In a turbulent global order, scenario planning is essential for safeguarding national interests.” Discuss in the context of India.

Source: Indian Express