Is Multipolarity Dead in the Age of Trump and Xi?

UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 2- international relations

Introduction

The global order after the Cold War first moved towards American dominance and later towards multipolarity with the rise of middle powers and regional groupings. However, recent developments in US-China relations, especially under Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, indicate the return of big power politics. The growing focus on US-China leadership has raised questions about whether multipolarity is weakening and whether the world is moving towards a new bipolar order.

From American Unipolarity to Challenges Against US Dominance

1. Collapse of Soviet Union and rise of US dominance: The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 created a unipolar world led by the US. Many strategic thinkers believed American power would dominate global politics for a long time.
2. “End of History” thesis: Political scientist Francis Fukuyama argued that liberal democracy represented the final stage of political evolution. He believed the American model would become the dominant global system.
3. Challenge from “Clash of Civilisations”: Political scientist Samuel Huntington rejected the idea of permanent US supremacy in 1993. He argued that future conflicts would emerge from civilisational and regional differences.
4. Rise of Islamic terrorism: The US soon faced major challenges from Islamic terrorism. The World Trade Centre attack in 2001 exposed the limits of American dominance.
5. Declining confidence in unipolarity: Global conflicts and security threats showed that military and economic superiority alone could not guarantee complete global control. This gradually weakened confidence in a fully unipolar world.

Rise of Multipolarity and the Emergence of Middle Powers

1. Emergence of middle powers: Countries like India, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, France and South Africa emerged as important global players. Their growing influence reduced the dominance of a single power.
2. Rise of plurilateral groupings: Groupings such as ASEAN, EU, Quad and BRICS became influential in global politics. These platforms promoted cooperation among multiple regional powers.
3. Growing popularity of multipolarity: The term “multipolarity” became popular in the early 21st century. Many believed a system with multiple centres of power would create balanced global governance.
4. Support for regionalism and localism: Multipolarity encouraged greater regional participation in world affairs. Many countries preferred a global system where local and regional interests received more importance.
5. Limits of power asymmetry: Many believed no country could challenge America’s economic, military and technological strength. However, several events, including the latest war in Iran, showed that stronger powers do not always succeed.

Growing US Concerns Over China’s Expanding Global Influence

1. Early US policy of engagement with China: During the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George Bush, the US tried to integrate China into the global system. The expectation was that economic growth would make China more liberal and responsible.
2. China emerged as a strategic challenger: Over the last 15 years, the US increasingly viewed China as a major strategic competitor. China’s rapid economic and military growth raised concerns in Washington.
3. Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy: The Obama administration launched the “pivot to Asia” policy to respond to China’s growing influence. The broader aim was to strengthen American presence in Asia.
4. Concerns in Pentagon’s review: The 2010 Quadrilateral Security Review welcomed China’s rise but also raised concerns over Beijing’s defence spending and governance system. It questioned China’s long-term intentions.
5. Rise in American apprehensions: US concerns over China continued to increase in the following years. Washington increasingly feared that China could eventually challenge American global dominance.

Trump–Xi Dynamics and the Return of Big Power Hyphenation

1. Xi Jinping’s rise and China’s ambitions: Xi Jinping’s rise in 2013 strengthened the image of China as an ambitious global power. China made major progress in deep-tech, defence and space under his leadership.
2. China’s call for joint global leadership: Xi repeatedly argued that the US and China should work together to ensure global security and prosperity. He presented both countries as major powers responsible for the future of humanity.
3. “Giant ship” metaphor in US-China relations: Xi used the metaphor of a “giant ship” to describe US-China relations. He argued that both countries should carefully guide the world through global instability.
4. Trump’s use of the G2 idea: Trump also used the idea of “G2” to describe the US-China relationship. He suggested that the two countries together hold major responsibility in world affairs.
5. Declining interest in plurilateral platforms: Both powers appear less interested in sharing leadership through larger groupings. The US showed less interest in Quad and NATO, while China appeared less enthusiastic about BRICS and G20, especially under India’s leadership.

Conclusion

Recent developments show the growing return of big power politics centred around the US and China. The increasing focus on bilateral leadership and declining importance of plurilateral groupings have weakened earlier optimism surrounding multipolarity. However, the continued influence of middle powers and regional platforms suggests that the global order is still evolving and remains far from fully bipolar.

Question for practice:

Evaluate whether the growing dominance of the US and China under Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is weakening the idea of multipolarity in global politics.

Source: Indian Express