C Raja Mohan writes: If the Gaza crisis explodes, India too will lose

Source: This post has been created based on the article “If the Gaza crisis explodes, India too will lose” published in The Indian Express on 21st October 2023.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2 International Relations — Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

News: This article discusses the implications of the recent Israel-Palestine crisis on India and its foreign policy imperatives in the wake of the Gaza war.

In wake of the recent Israel-Hamas conflict, the triumph of violent religious extremism and the weakening of moderate regimes will have security and political consequences for India.

What have been the underpinnings of India’s foreign policy in the Middle East?

1) India’s early stance on the Middle East involved the preference for modern secular nationalists. India was uncomfortable with traditionalist and religious forces in the region.

2) Several developments since the late 1970s led to the rise of violent religious extremism and Islamic republicanism that today threaten both secular and conservative regimes.

3) In the last few years, India has become closer to Arab moderates and Israel. This has been facilitated by the “converging interests” and “expanding engagement” between Arab moderates and Israel.

What are the implications of the recent crisis for India?

This crisis has cast a shadow over India’s recent gains in the Middle East.

The challenge for Indian policy is the possible breaking up of the emerging coalition of Arab moderates and Israel and limiting the rise of forces seeking regional chaos.

The triumph of violent religious extremism will also impact India politically and in terms of security.

The Gaza war has compelled Saudi Arabia to suspend dialogue with Israel. Muslim countries that were looking at engaging Israel are walking away from that idea.

How should India deal with these challenges?

3 essential areas need to be given attention by Indian foreign policy:

1) Encouraging moderation in Israel: India must caution Israel against its quest for revenge.
It is unlikely that Hamas’s ideology can be defeated through military means. In fact, the massive costs of Israel’s invasion will lend greater legitimacy to Hamas and weaken that of Israel.

2) Strengthening the moderate Palestinian Authority against Hamas.

3) Recognition of the regional ambitions of Iran and Turkey which may have implications for India (E.g., in J&K).

Strengthening moderates in Israel and Palestine, supporting reconciliation between them, and promoting a wider coalition of moderate states is critical for India’s long-term prospects in the Middle East.