ForumIAS announcing GS Foundation Program for UPSC CSE 2025-26 from 19 April. Click Here for more information.
ForumIAS Answer Writing Focus Group (AWFG) for Mains 2024 commencing from 24th June 2024. The Entrance Test for the program will be held on 28th April 2024 at 9 AM. To know more about the program visit: https://forumias.com/blog/awfg2024
Source: The post is based on the article “El Nino, India, and the risk of food shortage published in Livemint on 11th July 2023
What is the News?
The UN World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed it: El Niño conditions have arrived and are expected to become moderate to strong as they develop over the coming year.
What will be the impact of El Nino on India?
Source: Livemint
Impact on Trade Pattern of India: El Nino generally leads to drier conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia, which puts at risk critical crops from countries in these regions, some of which are key trading partners of India.
Australia, the second-largest wheat exporter, is officially expected to see a decline in wheat production. Similarly, palm oil production is likely to suffer in Indonesia and Malaysia.
This will have an impact on India’s trade patterns. For instance, India imports 56% of its edible oil needs, with huge reliance on imports from Indonesia and Malaysia, where El Nino could hurt palm oil production.
India could then opt for alternative sources like soya bean oil from Brazil as it is expected to receive good rainfall and get a bumper soya bean crop.
Similarly, Paddy, a major crop produced by Indonesia and Vietnam could also witness a decline in production. India being the second largest rice producer in the world can help these regions meet their deficit if it first procures enough to meet domestic demand.
Impact on economic growth of India: El Nino has been known to harm economic growth, costing tens of billions of dollars in direct impacts.
The World Meteorological Organization has said there is a 90% chance that El Nino will continue during the second half of 2023.It also said countries should prepare and limit the impact on their economies.
The Reserve Bank of India has expressed concern over the rising international prices of key food items like rice and sugar and said the adverse climate events have the potential to quickly change the direction of inflation trajectory. It has projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5% for FY24.
However, the International Monetary Fund has lowered its estimate of India’s GDP growth in 2023-24 to 5.9%.
