Escalating global conflicts could potentially lead to World War 3

Source: The post escalating global conflicts could potentially lead to World War 3 has been created, based on the article “In 2024, a world driven dangerously close to the edge” published in “Indian Express” on 7th October is 2024

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2- International Relations-Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context: The article discusses escalating global conflicts, such as Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, and US-China tensions, potentially leading to World War 3. It emphasizes rising nationalism, eroded global rules, and how technology, especially AI weapons, influences modern warfare, while hoping innovation may promote peace.

Why are global conflicts escalating?

1. The world is increasingly divided, with multiple conflicts escalating simultaneously.
2. In the Middle East, the Israel-Palestine conflict has worsened, with thousands of Palestinians, including many children, killed by Israeli bombings after Hamas’ attack. This conflict has extended to Lebanon, involving Iran’s allies, such as Hezbollah.
3. Similarly, in Europe, the Russia-Ukraine war has become more intense, with Ukraine opening a new offensive. President Putin has warned that NATO’s support for Ukraine could lead to nuclear war.
4. The US-China tension also grows, as the US imposes tariffs on Chinese imports to curb China’s technological and economic growth.
5. These separate conflicts echo World War 1’s origins, where small, unconnected events—like Franz Ferdinand’s assassination—escalated into a global war due to nationalism and egotistic leadership.

How Does Nationalism Fuel These Conflicts?

1. Nationalism and jingoism are rising globally. Leaders use external threats to strengthen political positions, even at the cost of global stability.
2. For instance, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unpopular before the conflict. But now, due to military successes, his political position has improved.
3. However, this escalates regional tensions and risks long-term instability, as seen with the displacement of

What Happened to the Global Rules?

1. The global rules of engagement established after World War II have collapsed, leaving no clear framework for countries to follow.
2. Nations are acting independently, disregarding alliances and traditional diplomacy.
3. Israel, despite relying on the US, ignored President Biden’s calls for restraint, showing how weakened global norms have become.
4. Military and economic superiority no longer ensure influence, as evidenced by Netanyahu’s actions, despite Israel’s dependence on the US.
5. This breakdown in global order allows countries to pursue their own interests, increasing the risk of conflict and instability worldwide.

How Is Technology Changing Modern Warfare?

1. Technology, especially AI, is playing a significant role in modern warfare. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt suggests that AI will dominate future wars, with AI weapons being developed by start-ups.
2. He emphasized that new “unicorn” companies will focus on creating AI-driven military technology.
3. Investors prioritize developing cost-effective AI weapons, even at the cost of human lives.
4. AI technology is seen as the future of military dominance, replacing traditional weaponry.
5. An example is the recent use of AI in detonating mobile devices in Lebanon, signaling how AI-driven methods are already influencing combat strategies.

Way forward

Power is shifting from politicians to influential people in technology and wealth. These individuals have “persuasion power,” as noted by economist Daron Acemoglu. If they use this power responsibly, there is hope that they may innovate solutions for peace and prevent the escalation of global conflicts into a full-scale war.

Question for practice:

Evaluate how rising nationalism and the collapse of global rules have contributed to the escalation of current global conflicts.