Great-power competition demands a first-principles foreign policy

UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 2- International relation

Introduction

The changing relations among the US, China, and Russia are reshaping India’s strategic environment. The growing China-Russia partnership and changing US-China ties have revived debates over India’s foreign policy choices. However, the central challenge for India is not every shift in great-power relations, but the long-term consequences of China’s rise. This requires a foreign policy based on strategic realism, national interests, internal strengthening, and practical external partnerships.

China’s Rise as India’s Central Strategic Challenge

1. Changing Eurasian Balance: Russia was once seen as a balancing power against China in Eurasia. However, over the last 25 years, Russia has moved much closer to China, especially after the Ukraine war in 2022, which increased Moscow’s dependence on Beijing.
2. China’s Expanding Power: Since the 1980s, China’s economic, military, and technological power has grown rapidly against all major powers. This rise has directly affected India’s strategic environment.
3. Border and Regional Pressure: India faces a long disputed and tension-prone border with China. Beijing is also expanding its influence in India’s neighbourhood and increasing its presence in global institutions.
4. Growing Economic Dependence: India’s trade deficit with China is now above $110 billion. This reflects India’s deep dependence on Chinese manufactured goods.
5. Managing Global Power Shifts: Relations among the US, China, and Russia have repeatedly changed since World War II. India therefore cannot react emotionally to every shift in great-power relations and must instead focus on long-term national interests.

India’s Need for Internal Strengthening

1. Modernisation as the Main Response: India cannot control wars, global crises, or changes in great-power relations. What India can control is its own economic and technological modernisation.
2. Uneven Reform Process: India performed well after the economic reforms of the early 1990s, but the pace and scope of reforms remained uneven. This has widened the gap between India and China.
3. Widening Capability Gap: China’s economy is now nearly five times larger than India’s. The gap is also increasing in higher education, research and development, technology, and military capability.
4. Self-Strengthening Remains Essential: India may not close the gap with China quickly, but stronger domestic capacity can reduce the effects of the power imbalance. Long-term national strength remains the foundation of foreign policy.

Importance of Partnerships with the West

1. External Cooperation Supports National Growth: Like China, India has increasingly depended on the West for capital, export markets, technology, and regional security support. Engagement with the US and Europe has expanded rapidly since the 1990s.
2. Importance of the United States: The US remains India’s largest export market, a major source of technology, and home to an influential Indian diaspora. Despite concerns about American reliability, the US is not the source of India’s territorial challenges.
3. Europe’s Growing Strategic Importance: India exports more goods to the Netherlands, a country with a population of only 19 million, than to China and Russia combined. This highlights the growing importance of Europe in India’s economic relations.
4. Correcting Strategic Imbalance: Indian strategic thinking long gave greater importance to Russia than to European partners. India is now gradually correcting this imbalance by expanding ties with Europe.
5. Economic Reality Driving Policy: India fought to preserve its trade relationship with the US, pushed for a trade deal with the European Union, and increased technology cooperation with both the US and Europe in recent years.

Reassessment of Strategic Autonomy and the Quad

1. Suspicion Towards the West: For decades, many political groups in India viewed the US and the West with suspicion. Both anti-imperialist and nationalist thinking often supported limiting deeper cooperation with Western countries.
2. Strategic Autonomy and Its Political Meaning: The idea of “strategic autonomy” was presented as a neutral foreign policy approach. In practice, it often meant maintaining distance from the US and Europe while favouring closer engagement with Russia and China through bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral forums.
3. Changed Strategic Reality: This approach now faces a major problem because China has become India’s main strategic challenge, while Russia has become China’s closest partner.
4. Quad and Multipolar Asia: The revival of the Quad was linked to the need for a multipolar Asia amid rising challenges from China. Cooperation with Quad partners is part of India’s broader balancing strategy.
5. Debate Over the Quad: Some voices in India argued that the Quad would trap India in an anti-China military alliance. The same groups now fear that the US may abandon India. However, India has continued active consultations with Quad partners.
6. Continuing Strategic Relevance: One diplomatic visit or improvement in US-China relations does not reduce the importance of the Quad. India continues to see value in sustained engagement with its Quad partners.

Conclusion

India’s foreign policy must remain rooted in national interests and strategic realism. The real challenge is managing the consequences of China’s rise rather than reacting to every shift in global power relations. Faster domestic modernisation, stronger partnerships with the West, and sustained engagement through platforms like the Quad can help India strengthen its long-term strategic position.

Question for practice:

Examine how the rise of China and changing great-power relations are reshaping India’s foreign policy priorities and strategic partnerships.

Source: Indian Express