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The successful test of Agni-V ballistic missile dubbed as Mission ‘Divyastra‘ is a watershed moment in the development of India’s Nuclear Deterrence capabilities. Agni-V’s impressive range of 5000 kms and enhanced potency due to Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), has bolstered India’s nuclear Deterrence.
What is Nuclear Deterrence? Where does it fit in India’s Nuclear Policy?
Nuclear Deterrence- Nuclear deterrence is a strategy employed by states possessing nuclear weapons to prevent adversaries from initiating a nuclear attack by convincing them that the costs and consequences of such an attack would outweigh any potential benefits.
Principle Behind Nuclear Deterrence- Nuclear Deterrence operates on the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), where both sides possess sufficient nuclear capabilities to inflict unacceptable damage on each other, thereby deterring any hostile actions.
India’s Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Deterrence– Maintenance of credible nuclear deterrence is one of the foremost priorities of India’s Nuclear Policy.
a. Credible Minimum Deterrence- India would maintain a sufficient number of nuclear weapons to deter a nuclear attack, but it would not seek to match other countries’ arsenals in size.
b. Retaliation to a Nuclear Attack- If India is subject to a nuclear attack, it would retaliate, causing massive damage to the aggressor.
How has India’s Nuclear Deterrence developed over the years?
Development of India’s Nuclear Deterrence
| 1947 | Post Independence, India pursued development of nuclear weapons capability, particularly in light of regional tensions and the emergence of nuclear-armed neighbours, namely China and Pakistan. |
| 1974 | India conducted its first nuclear test, codenamed ‘Smiling Buddha‘. This test demonstrated India’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. |
| 1974-1998 | During this phase, India maintained nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying the possession of nuclear weapons. This ambiguity served as a form of deterrence, maintaining uncertainty about India’s nuclear status. |
| 1998 | The Pokhran Tests of 1998, which comprised of five nuclear detonations, both fission and fusion, marked India’s evolution as a nuclear weapons state. |
| After 1998 Tests | Following the 1998 tests, India outlined its Nuclear Doctrine. The key elements of India’s nuclear doctrine include a No First Use (NFU) policy, minimum credible deterrence, and retaliation only in the event of a nuclear attack. India also established Strategic Forces Command (SFC) to oversee the management, deployment, and operational control of India’s nuclear forces. |
Modernization and Missile Development Efforts for Nuclear Deterrence
India has pursued an extensive missile development program as part of its nuclear deterrence strategy. These efforts have aimed to enhance its capability to deliver nuclear weapons effectively and establish a credible nuclear deterrence posture.
| Land Based Deterrence | |
| Agni Series | The Agni series of ballistic missiles are among India’s most prominent strategic weapons. The series includes Agni-I (700-1,250 km range), Agni-II (2,000-3,000 km range), Agni-III (3,000-5,000 km range), Agni-IV (4,000 km range), and Agni-V (5,000 range). Agni-V, intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles, capable of reaching targets as far as Europe and China. |
| Prithvi Series | Developed by DRDO, the Prithvi series comprises short-range ballistic missiles designed for tactical use. These missiles, including Prithvi I (150 km range) and Prithvi II (250-350 km range), can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, providing India with a flexible deterrence option against regional threats. |
| Shaurya | Shaurya is a land-based hypersonic missile developed by India, designed to deliver nuclear payloads with precision at hypersonic speeds. Its range is around 700-1,000 km, enhancing India’s deterrence capabilities by introducing a fast and maneuverable delivery system. |
| Sea Based Deterrence | |
| INS Arihant | India’s first indigenous Ballistic Missile Submarine (SSBN). There has been test-firing of nuclear-capable submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the Arihant in October 2022. This has added to India’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. |
| S-4 | It is India’s third indigenous nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) after INS Arihant and Arighat. The S-4 submarine is bigger than the INS Arihant and Arighat, with more space for nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. |
| Air Based Deterrence | |
| Rafale aircraft | The induction of the Rafale aircraft has provided the Indian Air Force with a sophisticated aircraft with nuclear-warhead-carrying capability. |
What is the Significance of Agni V missile?
1) Enhanced nuclear deterrence against adversaries like China- Agni-category missiles form the backbone of India’s land-based nuclear deterrence. The missile is the core of the India’s deterrence in the larger context of the Sino-Indian power equation. For ex- China’s Hong qi (HQ-19) ground-based ballistic missile interceptors, cannot intercept MIRV Capable Agni-V carrying multiple nuclear warheads.
2) Enhanced Nuclear retaliation to first strike- Agni-V helps us develop the credible nuclear retaliation after the first strike, as India’s nuclear doctrine commits to “no first use”. This retaliation with the help of MIRV capable Agni-V would inflict maximum damage to the other warring side.
3) Intercontinental Range Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Club- Agni-V’s range of 5,000km (about 3106.86 mi) can bring the farthest parts of China and even some of Europe within India’s strike radius. The development of this rocket has put India in the nations developing Intercontinental Range Ballistic Missile with increased ranges.
4) Boost to India’s defence capabilities-India’s defence arsenal has received a significant boost with Agni-V induction.
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What are the Challenges to India’s development of deterrence capabilities?
1) Inadequate nuclear testing facilities- The lack of sufficient testing undermines the extent to which the re-entry vehicles could be designed to carry the warheads.
2) Opacity surrounding the warhead numbers- There is opacity around the number of warheads Agni-V, can carry due to its classified nature. However, specialists suspect that it at present, it can carry at most only three warheads.
3) Low yield of the nuclear Warheads- There are concerns that the yield of the nuclear warheads will be limited due to the small number of atomic tests conducted by India.
4) Problems with Sea based nuclear deterrence- There are problems of deep-sea communications with SSBN because the very low-frequency systems in use on the submarine are prone to disruption at great depths.
5) Swift Expansion of Chinese Nuclear Arsenals- Beijing has been making brisk advancements with its missile and missile defence programmes.
What Should be the Way Forward?
1. Early testing of long-range Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM)- India must add punch to its nuclear arsenal by testing its long-range Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) which can be launched by its nuclear submarines.
2. Investment in Missile Defence Systems- To counter the growing threat from China’s modernizing nuclear arsenal, India should invest in developing and deploying advanced missile defence systems, like expediting development of Agni VI.
3. Strengthening of Conventional Capabilities- While maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent, India should also focus on strengthening its conventional military capabilities. This can help deter conventional conflicts that may escalate to the nuclear level.
4. Cooperation with Allies- India should continue to cooperate with its allies and partners, such as the United States, to deter potential aggressors. This could involve sharing intelligence, conducting joint military exercises, and coordinating on defence strategies.
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