On India’s population, let the data speak

Relevance: Population control measures have to be rational and focus on the welfare-based approach

Synopsis:

Focusing on the education and empowerment of women can help states to achieve desired fertility rates.

Introduction

The recently released empirical data from the National Family Health Survey 2019-20 (NFHS-5) for 22 states and Union territories provides that except for three states — Bihar, Manipur and Meghalaya —the fertility rates have gone below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Key findings of the NFHS-5 data:

• In all the seven Northeastern states, the fertility rates range from 1.1 in Sikkim to 1.9 in Assam, except Manipur (2.2) and Meghalaya (2.9).
• The TFR in the Union territories of Lakshwadeep and Jammu & Kashmir, which have sizeable Muslim populations, have gone substantially below the replacement level with 1.4 children per woman.

• Among populous states

  • The TFR has gone down to 1.6 children in West Bengal.
  • It is only 1.7 each in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh.
  • Even in Bihar, where the TFR is 3, there is a relative decline in fertility from 3.4 in NFHS-4 (2015-16).

About NFHS – 4

1. In NFHS-4 itself, as many as 23 states and Union Territories, including all the states in the south region, showed fertility below the replacement level.
2. In Uttar Pradesh, too, there is a declining trend in TFR from 3.8 in NFHS-3 (2005-06) to 2.7 in NFHS-4 (2015-16).
3. The NFHS-4 (2015-16) shows interesting linkages of fertility with education and economic well-being.
   • For example, women with no schooling have an average of 3.1 children, compared with 1.7 children for women with 12 or more years of schooling.

Read more:

• No need for a drastic population policy
• Population populism: UP draft population bill fails tests of necessity, intrusiveness

Outcomes from the NFHS report:

Fertility rates are reflective of the progress in respective states on schooling, income levels, decline in neonatal and infant mortality rates and increase in the contraceptive prevalence rate. States with relatively higher TFR like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh need to work on these fronts.

Terms to know:

• National Family Health Survey (NFHS)
• National Population Policy
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)