The Indo-Pacific region has re-emerged as a focal point in global geopolitics after a period of relative neglect, during which major powers such as the US shifted their attention to crises in Europe and the Middle East. This lull, however, allowed China to quietly expand its influence, reshaping regional dynamics and underlining the need for new strategies among key stakeholders, especially India. Restoring Balance in the Indo-Pacific.
Key Developments in the Indo-Pacific
- China’s incremental expansion: China has utilized the period of global distraction to expand influence through ports, infrastructure, logistics, and dual-use projects, notably in Myanmar and Cambodia, without establishing overt military bases.
o The strategy focuses on building “incremental advantage,” leveraging commercial projects for long-term strategic flexibility.
- US disengagement and erosion of regional rrust: The US shifted its attention to Europe and the Middle East, leading to a strategic lull in the Indo-Pacific.
- Reduced sustained engagement by the US has resulted in the Quad lacking the steady coordination needed for robust deterrence.
- Rise of autonomous regional strategies: India, Japan, and Australia are pursuing more independent and decentralized security and economic strategies.
- These countries are strengthening bilateral ties, mini-lateral frameworks, and enhancing indigenous capabilities beyond dependence on American leadership.
- Growing coordination challenges: Diplomatic strains, such as cooling Indo-US relations and revived US interest in Pakistan, have further thinned strategic cooperation.
- Gaps in coordination and persistent disengagement give China space to shape regional norms and expand its influence.
- Risk of eroding deterrence: The principal threat is not outright war but a gradual erosion of deterrence and trust, making room for coercive tactics and norm revision by China.
Way Forward
- Sustained strategic engagement: India should prioritize continuous diplomatic and maritime presence across the Indo-Pacific, avoiding a retreat into continental preoccupations.
- Capacity building and investment: Strengthen maritime domain awareness, upgrade logistics and coastal infrastructure, and invest in dual-use development that serves both economic and defense interests.
- Deepening partnerships: Expand partnerships in disaster relief, climate resilience, and connectivity projects, especially with ASEAN and Pacific island nations.
- Reinforce involvement in forums such as the Quad and foster inclusive diplomacy with smaller regional states.
- Promoting regional resilience: Support collective approaches that emphasize autonomy, rule-based order, and pluralistic cooperation over rigid bloc alignments.
- Focus on adaptation and presence to prevent the dilution of deterrence and ensure India’s stakes in regional security and stability.
Conclusion
The Indo-Pacific’s future depends on the ability of regional democracies, especially India, to restore persistent, purposeful engagement. Timely action can reverse the drift and ensure a stable, open, and pluralistic maritime order that secures both national interests and collective security.
Source: TNIE
