On December 25, China approved the construction of the Tsangpo Dam, world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra) in Tibet. This ambitious 60,000 MW project will produce electricity three times the capacity of the world’s current largest hydroelectric facility, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in central China.
While heralded as a clean energy initiative by Beijing, the Tsangpo Dam project has raised significant geopolitical, ecological, and socioeconomic concerns, particularly for downstream nations like India. The implications of such a large-scale infrastructure project highlight the challenges of water diplomacy and regional stability.
Course of the River:
Tributaries in India:
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What is the Yarlung Tsangpo project?
| About | a. The Yarlung Tsangpo project involves the construction of a mega-dam in Medog County, Tibet Autonomous Region. b. The dam is strategically located at the “Great Bend,” where the river takes a dramatic U-turn before entering India’s Arunachal Pradesh. c. This location, mentioned in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), is ideal for hydropower generation due to the river’s steep descent of nearly 2,000 meters. |
| Significance of the Project | a. Once completed, it will generate approximately 300 billion kWh of electricity annually. b. It Fulfills critical part of China’s renewable energy goals and supporting its carbon neutrality target by 2060. |
Why does China want the Yarlung Tsangpo mega project?
1. Energy security and sustainability:
a. Leverages the steep gradient and high flow rate of the Yarlung Tsangpo for hydroelectric power generation.
b. Supports China’s transition away from fossil fuels and aligns with China’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
2. Water scarcity in northern China:
a. Northern China faces severe water scarcity due to overuse, industrialization, and climate change.
b. By controlling the Yarlung Tsangpo’s flow, China could divert water northward under its ambitious South-North Water Diversion Project, alleviating water stress in arid regions like Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin.
3. Strategic and geopolitical objectives:
a. China’s infrastructure development on the Yarlung Tsangpo gives it leverage over downstream nations like India and Bangladesh, which depend on the Brahmaputra for agriculture, drinking water, and livelihoods.
b. The project could be used as a geopolitical tool in Sino-Indian relations, as any manipulation of the river’s flow would have significant repercussions for India’s Northeast.
4. Economic development in Tibet:
a. Aims to boost regional development in the Tibetan Autonomous Region.
b. Expected to generate 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) annually, creating economic opportunities in the underdeveloped area.
What are the concerns and implications of China’s Tibet Dam Project on India?
1. Agriculture– The Brahmaputra, or Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, is crucial for millions in India, enriching soil with silt in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. A large dam could disrupt silt flow, reducing soil fertility and harming agricultural productivity downstream.
2. Water resources– China says the project is a run-of-the-river scheme, but experts warn it could disrupt water flow. It leads to water shortages in dry seasons and floods in monsoons, putting lives and livelihoods in Assam and nearby areas at risk.
3. Potential weaponization of water– China’s upstream position on the Brahmaputra gives it control over the river, and past actions, like withholding hydrological data during the 2017 Doklam standoff, show its willingness to use water as a geopolitical tool.
4. Seismological threats– The Himalayan region is among the most seismically active in the world. Building a mega-dam in this earthquake-prone area amplifies the risks of infrastructure failure, potentially leading to catastrophic flooding downstream.
5. Ecological Impact– The construction and operation of the dam threaten the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, home to several critically endangered species. Combined with ongoing challenges like deforestation, climate change, and soil erosion, the project could irreversibly alter the region’s biodiversity.
What coordination mechanism do India and China have on transboundary rivers?
1. An umbrella Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation for transboundary rivers, signed in 2013, remains in place but lacks substantive engagement. Separate MoUs exist for the Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers, but their effectiveness has been inconsistent.
2. Brahmaputra MoU: This agreement, renewable every five years, focuses on hydrological data sharing during monsoons. The last renewal lapsed in 2023, and discussions are ongoing.
3. Sutlej MoU: Prompted by the Parechu Lake incident in 2004, this MoU facilitates data sharing to monitor glacial lake outbursts. However, it does not provide for year-round data sharing.
Expert-Level Mechanism– During the Chinese President’s visit to India (November 20–23, 2006), both nations agreed to establish an Expert-Level Mechanism for cooperation on flood-season hydrological data, emergency management, and trans-border river issues. The ELM meetings are held alternately in India and China every year.
Note– India and China are not signatories to the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. However, both countries abide by its key features, including the equitable and reasonable utilisation of waters.
What are India’s options?
1. Strengthening diplomatic engagement: India should use bilateral channels to promote transparency and cooperation. Publicly questioning China’s claims that the project won’t harm downstream countries can help avoid a situation where the decision is already final and unchangeable.
2. Domestic countermeasures: India is planning its own 10 GW hydropower project in the Dibang Valley of Arunachal Pradesh. Accelerating such projects can mitigate the strategic disadvantage posed by China’s dam.
3. International advocacy: India can advocate for stronger global norms on transboundary water governance. Engaging with regional bodies and international forums can put pressure on China to act responsibly.
4. Strengthening data sharing mechanisms: Enhancing the scope and duration of hydrological data sharing agreements with China is critical for flood forecasting and disaster management.
5. Building regional alliances: India can collaborate with other lower riparian states, such as Bangladesh, to present a unified front against unilateral upstream actions by China.
6. Investing in resilience: Building resilient infrastructure and improving early warning systems can help mitigate the risks posed by upstream activities.
Conclusion
The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo Dam presents both challenges and opportunities. While it highlights the urgency of addressing transboundary water issues, it also provides India with a chance to strengthen its strategic and diplomatic efforts. A balanced approach that prioritizes both ecological sustainability and national security will be essential in navigating the complexities of this issue.
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