Ukraine Conflict: Why India needs to pay attention Russian military build-up in Ukraine

News: Russian military build-up near Ukraine can impose several implications for India. It can complicate India’s objectives vis-à-vis Russia, China, the US, Europe, and even Ukraine.

What are the potential challenges which India has to face?

Hinder ties with Russia: A Russian invasion and a rupture with the US and its allies would lead to pressure on India to choose between the Western alliance and Russia. This would further lead Russia more inclined towards China. There is a possibility that a similar situation like in Cuba missile crisis might occur when Russia needed Beijing’s backing. It resulted in Soviet support for ally China versus friend India at a crucial moment in the China-India war.

Complicate India’s efforts to balance ties: It would complicate India’s efforts to maintain a delicate balance between its partnerships with the US, Europe, and Russia. Post the Russian annexation of Crimea, India neither openly criticized nor endorsed Russian actions. However, Russia can use India’s silence as an endorsement as it did in the case of Crimea, and recently when it unilaterally issued a joint statement on Afghanistan.

Shifting attention: The deteriorating situation in Europe could draw US attention away from the Indo-Pacific theatre-like visible in Afghanistan and Middle East crises. This would make it difficult for India to bring the USA attention towards the rise of China.

Moreover, in order to focus on the Russian challenge, European capitals could seek to stabilise ties with China, rather than act against its assertive actions.

Source: This post is based on the article “Why India needs to pay attention Russian military build-up in Ukraine” published in the Indian Express on 21st January 2022.