Resurgence of Nuclear Factors in Global Politics

Source-This post on Resurgence of Nuclear Factors in Global Politics has been created based on the article “C Raja Mohan writes Election rhetoric, nuclear weapons and Pakistan — the need to expand debate” published in “The Indian Express” on 29 May 2024.

UPSC Syllabus-GS Paper-2-International Relations- Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context– The article emphasizes that nuclear factors have regained prominence in the strategic calculations of major powers and significant regional arenas such as Europe, the Middle East, and Asia

The UN cautioned that increasing tensions between the US and Europe, as well as Russia and China, are leading the world toward a possible nuclear conflict. Resurgence of Nuclear Factors in Global Politics

What factors are prompting a reassessment of nuclear deterrence globally?

1) Nuclear Dynamics in Europe-The war in Ukraine and Russia’s nuclear actions are making the West reconsider how deterrence works. They’re considering ideas like making NATO’s nuclear and conventional forces stronger, increasing cooperation between France and Britain, and creating a separate European deterrent led by France.

2) Nuclear Dynamics in Asia –

A) China’s assertiveness and the fear of American isolationism under a potential second Trump term are nudging Beijing’s Asian neighbours to reconsider their atomic abstinence.

B) Japan and South Korea are discussing ways to enhance the protection provided by the American nuclear umbrella. However, if Trump wins the November election, the discussion about having their own nuclear weapons may become more serious in Northeast Asia.

3) Nuclear Dynamics in Middle East– Concerns about Iran developing nuclear weapons are making Arab countries more interested in increasing their own atomic capabilities. Reports suggest that civil nuclear technology cooperation is included in the security agreement being discussed between Saudi Arabia and the US.

What are the emerging challenges to traditional nuclear deterrence?

1) The rise of AI and robotic weapons is raising questions about the dangers of automating nuclear decision-making and its consequences for strategic stability between major powers.

2) The US has voiced concern that China and Russia might rely on algorithms to decide when to deploy nuclear weapons.

3) There are concerns in the US that Russia plans to deploy anti-satellite nuclear weapons to undermine Washington’s dominance in outer space.

What are the issues with India’s traditional ideas of nuclear deterrence?

1) Pakistan’s Nuclear Challenge for India–

A) Ignoring Pakistan’s nuclear threat would be imprudent. As Pakistan’s overall strength diminishes compared to India’s, India should understand that Rawalpindi will intensify its nuclear weapons program as a last resort against the perceived dominance of India in the region.

B) Pakistan has a longstanding focus on developing nuclear weapons and currently holds an advantage over India in terms of both the size and sophistication of its arsenal. Its ongoing strategic partnership with China indicates the potential to maintain this advantage against India.

Read more- India’s nuclear doctrine after 25 years of Pokhran

2) China’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal– China’s nuclear threat is growing as Beijing is expanding its nuclear arsenal. Western estimates suggest that by 2030, China could have around 1,000 nuclear weapons, and by 2035, this number could increase to 1,500.

What should be the way forward for India?

1) It’s crucial to focus on building defenses against China’s growing nuclear weapons. This should be a priority for the nation, which means developing nuclear and missile capabilities with clear intent.

2) The next Indian government must order a comprehensive review of the changing global nuclear dynamic and regional atomic challenges and find ways to modernize India’s atomic arsenal and doctrine.

3) The review must also explore ways to accelerate India’s civilian nuclear energy programme.

4) India should completely   revamp the legal and institutional structures that govern its atomic energy advancement

Question for practice

What factors are prompting a reassessment of nuclear deterrence globally? In this context, highlight the issues with India’s traditional ideas of nuclear deterrence?