Introduction
The US–China “G2” dynamic refers to a situation where the US and China act as the two main centres of global power. The recent Trump–Xi meeting at the Busan APEC Summit, framed as a “G2”, highlighted this reality. Their strategic calm may reduce global tensions, but it also exposes India’s limited economic leverage and high external dependence. This moment forces India to reassess its assumptions about great-power politics and rethink how it positions itself between the two dominant players.
Impacts of US–China “G2” Dynamic on India
- US priorities: The US now puts its China relationship ahead of ties with India. Trade imbalances and big-ticket deals with Beijing attract more attention in Washington than long-term strategic plans with New Delhi.
- India’s Indo-Pacific assumptions: India earlier believed it was central to the US Indo-Pacific strategy as a counterweight to China. The quick US trade accommodation with China, combined with continued tariff pressure on India, shows these assumptions were over-optimistic.
- Economic costs and unequal treatment: US tariffs have already cost Indian workers jobs, while China gains relief and praise from Trump. This difference in treatment underlines how India’s concerns can be sacrificed when they clash with core US economic interests.
- Need for strategic rethinking: The “G2” moment signals that India cannot rely on permanent US support. India must rethink how it defines its value to Washington and prepare for frequent policy shifts. Greater flexibility becomes essential.
Way forward
- From reliance to multi-alignment: India must move faster towards a multi-aligned posture. It should deepen ties with Europe, the UK, Gulf states, Africa, ASEAN, Russia and Central Asia. No single relationship should be able to limit or define India’s choices in foreign or economic policy.
- Reassessing the Quad and other coalitions:
- Uncertainty over Trump’s participation in the next Quad summit in India shows how fluid coalitions are.
- India should treat the Quad as useful but not central, and weigh it alongside other regional and bilateral forums, including engagement with China when it serves Indian interests.
- Managed competition with China:
- The current US–China thaw creates some space for engagement between India and China.
- India needs a model of managed competition: firm military preparedness on the border, but open diplomatic and trade channels. This can prevent escalation and keep room for negotiation on difficult issues.
- Cutting dependence and building capability:
- India’s reliance on Chinese imports, especially in pharmaceuticals and electronics, is a core weakness.
- India must diversify supply chains, attract firms that want to reduce exposure to China, and build domestic capacity in AI, quantum technologies, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.
- Balancing openness and state-led instruments:
- Economic policy must be coherent and rooted in political and social realities.
- India should keep trade and investment open and business-friendly, but also use targeted industrial policy, public investment and digital tools where markets alone cannot protect workers, key sectors or critical technologies.
Conclusion
For India, the “G2” moment is a clear warning. The US will not automatically treat India as a counterweight to China. In a transactional multipolar world, only a proactive, multi-aligned strategy built on economic and technological resilience can reliably safeguard India’s interests.
Question for practice:
Examine how the evolving US–China “G2” dynamic challenges India’s earlier strategic assumptions and discuss the policy shifts India must pursue in response.
Source: Indian Express
