India and Pakistan face challenges over Indus water sharing

Source: The post India and Pakistan face challenges over Indus water sharing has been created, based on the article “Shadow over Indus Water Treaty” published in “Business line” on 25 April 2025.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2-International Relations – Bilateral groupings and agreements

Context: Water-sharing in the Indus basin is crucial for both India and Pakistan. However, recent political tensions, climate challenges, and violent incidents, including the Pahalgam terror attack, have pushed the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) into a critical phase.

For detailed information on Indus Water Treaty- Concerns and Way Forward read this article here

Historical Background of the Treaty

1. Partition and the Water Dispute: After 1947, control over the Indus River system became a serious issue. The basin includes six rivers—Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—flowing across both countries.
2. Agreement and Allocation: India and Pakistan signed the IWT in 1960, brokered by the World Bank. Pakistan received 80% of the total waters (about 135 BCM) from the western rivers. India got 20% (about 33 BCM) from the eastern rivers.
3. Institutional Mechanism: A Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) was created to enable regular dialogue and resolve disputes. The World Bank retained a role in arbitration.

Importance of the Indus River System

1. Pakistan’s Heavy Dependence: About 220 million people and nearly 90% of Pakistan’s agriculture depend on the Indus system. The Indus Basin Irrigation System, the world’s largest, supports over 16 million hectares of farmland.
2. India’s Regional Importance: India uses the Indus waters to support 120 million people across Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan—for agriculture, urban supply, and industry.

Rising Tensions and Recent Developments

1. Growing Indian Assertiveness: India’s position hardened after attacks in Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and Pahalgam (2023), and after scrapping Jammu & Kashmir’s special status in 2019.
2. India Invokes Treaty Clause: In 2023, India invoked Article XII of the IWT for the first time, signaling its intent to seek modifications.
3. India’s Case for Change: India argues the treaty is outdated. It does not consider today’s realities like population pressure, altered river flows, or climate change. Delays caused by Pakistan’s objections to Indian hydropower projects have added to frustration.

Impact on Pakistan

1. Agricultural and Economic Vulnerability: Any reduction in water flows could harm major crops such as wheat and rice, affecting food security and livelihoods for millions.
2. Energy Security at Risk: Hydropower from the Indus system fuels major plants like Tarbela and Mangla. Upstream water changes could worsen power shortages.
3. Environmental and Social Effects: Lower water levels may cause desertification in Sindh and Punjab, increase soil salinity, degrade ecosystems, and displace rural populations.
4. Diminished Diplomatic Space: India’s rising global clout may make it harder for Pakistan to gain international backing or win disputes in arbitration forums.

Impact on India

1. Strategic and Economic Gains: Modifying the treaty could allow India to expand irrigation and hydropower in northern states, supporting border-area development.
2. Risk to Global Image: Unilateral actions may harm India’s reputation as a responsible actor and weaken its position in other transboundary water treaties.
3. Environmental Trade-offs: Uncoordinated infrastructure projects could damage fragile river ecosystems in the Himalayas and deltas.

Broader Repercussions

1. Legal and Security Dangers: Breaking the treaty may lead to legal disputes and militarised approaches to water management in a nuclear region.
2. Climate Urgency and the Need for Cooperation: Glacial melt, erratic monsoons, and droughts highlight the importance of coordinated governance. Without IWT, joint responses will be difficult.
3. High Human Stakes: Over 340 million people directly depend on the Indus. The cost of failure could be catastrophic for both nations.

Question for practice:

Evaluate the implications of recent political tensions and climate challenges on the future of the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan.